Modeling Seasonal Rabies Epidemics in China
Identifieur interne : 001E63 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001E62; suivant : 001E64Modeling Seasonal Rabies Epidemics in China
Auteurs : Juan Zhang [République populaire de Chine] ; Zhen Jin [République populaire de Chine] ; Gui-Quan Sun [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiang-Dong Sun [République populaire de Chine] ; Shigui Ruan [États-Unis]Source :
- Bulletin of Mathematical Biology [ 0092-8240 ] ; 2012-05-01.
Descripteurs français
- Wicri :
- topic : Rage, Vaccination.
English descriptors
Abstract
Abstract: Human rabies, an infection of the nervous system, is a major public-health problem in China. In the last 60 years (1950–2010) there had been 124,255 reported human rabies cases, an average of 2,037 cases per year. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of human rabies have not become well understood. The monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health exhibits a periodic pattern on an annual base. The cases in the summer and autumn are significantly higher than in the spring and winter. Based on this observation, we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIRS) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal rabies epidemics. We evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R 0 in terms of various model parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is more reasonable to regard R 0 rather than the average basic reproduction number $\bar{R}_{0}$ or the basic reproduction number $\hat{R}_{0}$ of the corresponding autonomous system as a threshold for the disease. Finally, our studies show that human rabies in China can be controlled by reducing the birth rate of dogs, increasing the immunization rate of dogs, enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn.
Url:
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-012-9720-6
Affiliations:
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wicri:rule="url">États-Unis</country></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j">Bulletin of Mathematical Biology</title><title level="j" type="sub">A Journal Devoted to Research at the Junction of Computational, Theoretical and Experimental BiologyOfficial Journal of The Society for Mathematical Biology</title><title level="j" type="abbrev">Bull Math Biol</title><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno><idno type="eISSN">1522-9602</idno><imprint><publisher>Springer-Verlag</publisher><pubPlace>New York</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2012-05-01">2012-05-01</date><biblScope unit="volume">74</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">5</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="1226">1226</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="1251">1251</biblScope></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0092-8240</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Basic reproduction number</term><term>Periodic solution</term><term>Rabies</term><term>SEIRS model</term><term>Vaccination</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Rage</term><term>Vaccination</term></keywords></textClass><langUsage><language ident="en">en</language></langUsage></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Abstract: Human rabies, an infection of the nervous system, is a major public-health problem in China. In the last 60 years (1950–2010) there had been 124,255 reported human rabies cases, an average of 2,037 cases per year. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of human rabies have not become well understood. The monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health exhibits a periodic pattern on an annual base. The cases in the summer and autumn are significantly higher than in the spring and winter. Based on this observation, we propose a susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIRS) model with periodic transmission rates to investigate the seasonal rabies epidemics. We evaluate the basic reproduction number R 0, analyze the dynamical behavior of the model, and use the model to simulate the monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number R 0 in terms of various model parameters. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is more reasonable to regard R 0 rather than the average basic reproduction number $\bar{R}_{0}$ or the basic reproduction number $\hat{R}_{0}$ of the corresponding autonomous system as a threshold for the disease. Finally, our studies show that human rabies in China can be controlled by reducing the birth rate of dogs, increasing the immunization rate of dogs, enhancing public education and awareness about rabies, and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Floride</li></region></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Zhang, Juan" sort="Zhang, Juan" uniqKey="Zhang J" first="Juan" last="Zhang">Juan Zhang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Jin, Zhen" sort="Jin, Zhen" uniqKey="Jin Z" first="Zhen" last="Jin">Zhen Jin</name><name sortKey="Sun, Gui Quan" sort="Sun, Gui Quan" uniqKey="Sun G" first="Gui-Quan" last="Sun">Gui-Quan Sun</name><name sortKey="Sun, Xiang Dong" sort="Sun, Xiang Dong" uniqKey="Sun X" first="Xiang-Dong" last="Sun">Xiang-Dong Sun</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Floride"><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name></region><name sortKey="Ruan, Shigui" sort="Ruan, Shigui" uniqKey="Ruan S" first="Shigui" last="Ruan">Shigui Ruan</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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